Economists Question Job Growth Figure Cited By Governor

AP/Toby Talbot

Gov. Peter Shumlin holds a license plate during his State of the State address. Shumlin talked up recent success in job growth, but some economists are questioning the veracity of his figures.

(Host) There's no question Vermont has weathered the economic downturn better than many other states. 

But a claim made by Governor Peter Shumlin about just how many new jobs are being added invites some scrutiny. 

VPR's Steve Zind reports.

(Zind) About two-thirds of the way through his State of the State address earlier this month, Shumlin made this dramatic statement as proof that the Vermont economy is growing stronger.

(Shumlin)  "Over the past year, new jobs in Vermont grew by 62 percent over the prior year, more than any other state in the nation."

(Zind) That 62 percent increase in new jobs is becoming a regular talking point for the governor.  Here he is at the Lake Champlain Regional Chamber of Commerce legislative breakfast.

(Shumlin) "Vermont grew jobs in the last 12 months by 62 percent.  That's new jobs. That's higher than any other state in the nation, per capita."

(Woolf) "When I first saw that I thought it was a typo."

(Zind) Art Woolf is editior of the Vermont Economy Newsletter and associate professor of economics a the University of Vermont. 

(Woolf) "Not even China comes anywhere close to that in terms of growing jobs. I ignored the number because I figured there was something wrong with it."

(Zind) Woolf says that based on Department of Labor numbers, the real figure for job growth in Vermont is quite a bit lower.

(Woolf) "The estimates are about 1.5 percent. But when the data are revised in a few months, it will probably be much closer to about 1 percent, which isn't quite the same as 62 percent."

(Zind)  It turns out the governor's 62 percent figure comes from something called the Bullhorn Job Opportunity Report.  Bullhorn is a company that offers employment software and services to businesses.

In an email, a spokeswoman for Bullhorn says the figure represents job vacancies being advertised.  Some may be new jobs. Others are openings for existing jobs. There's no way to know from the Bullhorn figures .

(Hoffer)  "I've been looking at this kind of data for 20 years and I've never seen a reference to Bullhorn."

(Zind) That's Doug Hoffer, who's an economic policy analyst.  Hoffer says its unclear how Bullhorn gathered its data, but he agrees that the 62 percent figure isn't a measure of job growth.

(Hoffer) "They are not actually measuring jobs.  They are measuring job openings.  So, in fact what's going on is a measure about unmet demand, not jobs per se."

(Zind) Speaking for the Shumlin administration, Lawrence Miller says the Bullhorn figure was one of many that found their way to the governor's desk as he prepared his State of the State address.   Miller is secretary of Commerce and Community Development.

He agrees that the 62 percent doesn't represent new job growth.

(Zind)  "But I don't hear you saying that what you thought it meant is what it seems to mean in the context of the State of the State address."

(Miller) "No.  I don't think it's as bald as that.  What it clearly says to me is there were 62 percent more job openings in that period. We didn't see a substantial increase in unemployment. Quite the opposite. So it's not clearly resulting from displacement of workers. Any way I was looking at it, it was like, ‘OK, there's a good data point.'"

(Zind) Doug Hoffer says the irony is there's plenty of accurate information out there to support the argument that Vermont's economy is doing better than much of the rest of the country.

(Hoffer) "I don't know why the governor chose those figures but in truth he did misspeak.  We did not have a 62 percent increase in jobs."

(Zind) Hoffer says one area where Vermont does lag is in income. Median wages are much lower in Vermont than many other places. That's a problem the governor talks about, too.

It remains to be seen whether Governor Shumlin will continue to use the 62 percent new jobs figure. 

For VPR News, I'm Steve Zind.

(Host) Governor Shumlin is scheduled to speak this morning, by the way, in Burlington. His audience? An economic forum.